Market volatility, rising inflation, geopolitical uncertainty, and shifting leadership underscore the importance of diversification, disciplined rebalancing, and a long-term investment strategy.
Market Update: Diversification Matters More Than Ever
This year has been marked by periods of volatility and significant divergence across asset classes, sectors, and investment styles, with market leadership shifting between Growth and Value, U.S. and International equities, Large Cap and Small Cap stocks, and the Magnificent Seven versus the broader market. At the same time, stock market concentration remains elevated by historical standards, while inflation and geopolitical uncertainty continue to create potential headwinds.
These dynamics reinforce the importance of maintaining a broadly diversified portfolio and a disciplined rebalancing process. Diversification helps ensure portfolios are not overly reliant on any single asset class, sector, or market theme. For example, in today’s environment, real assets such as infrastructure and real estate may provide valuable inflation-protection characteristics alongside their diversification benefits. Rebalancing can take advantage of relative price movements and has proven to add value over the long term. Given the wide dispersion in returns observed this year, we have seen an increase in rebalancing opportunities.
Inflation Rises
Headline CPI increased 0.5% in May, lifting the year-over-year inflation rate to 4.2%. While inflation moved higher, the result was largely in line with market expectations. Excluding the more volatile food and energy categories, core CPI rose slightly less than anticipated, though it still increased at a 2.9% annualized pace. Both headline and core inflation reached their highest levels since September 2025. Elevated energy prices associated with the ongoing conflict in the Middle East were the primary contributor to the increase, accounting for approximately 60% of the rise in headline inflation.
Middle East Continues to be a Concern
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have remained elevated and have contributed to increased market volatility. President Trump stated this morning that Iran has taken too long to negotiate a resolution and indicated that additional military actions may be forthcoming. This comes after the U.S. overnight launched a new series of strikes that officials described as defensive in nature and a proportional response to Iran’s downing of a U.S. Apache helicopter. Iran launched a barrage of missiles and drones in reaction, targeting Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain, though these seem largely to have been intercepted.
The Economy Remains Resilient
Despite geopolitical uncertainty and inflation pressures stemming from elevated energy prices, economic data has continued to exceed expectations. Friday’s strong payroll report was the latest indication of a resilient labor market, adding to a broader set of encouraging economic trends. Recession risks have eased, consumer spending remains healthy, and labor market conditions appear to be stabilizing. Additionally, increased AI adoption has the potential to enhance productivity, supporting economic growth and extending the current expansion.
Strong Corporate Earnings
First-quarter S&P 500 earnings growth was exceptionally robust, and analysts continue to revise future earnings expectations higher. Importantly, earnings growth has broadened beyond the largest tech names, reflecting improving fundamentals across a wider range of sectors and businesses. At the same time, stock prices have not kept pace with upward earnings revisions, resulting in lower valuation multiples; P/E ratios have declined year-to-date despite the market’s gains (albeit off recent highs)—a healthy development that suggests returns have been driven more by fundamental earnings growth than by expanding valuation multiples.
Fed in Wait-and-See Mode
With inflation remaining elevated, in part due to higher energy prices and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, and with economic growth proving more resilient than expected, we do not anticipate any material changes to the fed funds rate in the near term. We believe the Fed is likely to remain in a wait-and-see mode as it evaluates the economic implications of the Middle East conflict and its potential impact on inflation. Over the longer term, we continue to believe the Fed would prefer to move the fed funds rate toward a more neutral level of approximately 3%, though we do not expect that process to begin anytime soon. With that said, the Fed may consider reducing the size of its balance sheet as an alternative means of tightening financial conditions, an approach that incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has advocated.
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Mission Wealth is a Registered Investment Adviser. This commentary reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Mission Wealth employees providing such comments. It should not be regarded as a description of advisory services provided by Mission Wealth or performance returns of any Mission Wealth client. The views reflected in the commentary are subject to change at any time without notice. Nothing in this commentary constitutes investment advice, performance data, or any recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. Mission Wealth manages its clients’ accounts using a variety of investment techniques and strategies, which are not necessarily discussed in the commentary. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
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