We are committed to keeping our clients informed with insights into the market and economic trends that may affect their portfolio. Through regular updates, we provide a clear view of what we’re observing, what we’re tracking, and how we’re actively managing portfolios on their behalf.
Below is a brief overview from our Chief Investment Officer, Kieran Osborne, along with a link to our full Q4 Market Perspectives deck for deeper insights.
Market Update
Despite periods of heightened volatility, stocks remain positive year-to-date, supported by stronger-than-expected corporate earnings and resilient economic growth. Importantly, earnings growth has outpaced stock price appreciation, bringing S&P 500 valuation multiples (P/E ratios) closer to long-term averages.
Markets have nevertheless experienced volatility driven by concerns surrounding AI-related companies, market concentration, geopolitical uncertainty, shifting Fed policy expectations, and the midterm elections. Performance dispersion across asset classes, investment styles, and geographies has also been significant, reinforcing the importance of maintaining broadly diversified portfolios and a disciplined approach to rebalancing.
Economic Growth Remains Resilient
The U.S. economy continues to demonstrate resilience despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, supported by strong consumer spending and business investment. Recent economic data has broadly surprised to the upside, reflecting positive underlying momentum, with U.S. GDP currently expected to grow approximately 2.2% in 2026 – above its long-term trend rate. Continued AI adoption could also support further productivity gains and extend the current economic expansion.
The Economy
Global economic momentum is soundly positive and improving despite geopolitical uncertainty. In the U.S., economic data continues to surprise to the upside, supported by resilient consumer spending and robust business investment. The U.S. economy is expected to grow approximately 2.2% in 2026 and remain above its long-term trend growth rate of 2% for the foreseeable future.
At the same time, inflation is expected to remain above the Fed’s 2% target through at least 2027. Given the combination of resilient economic growth, a balanced labor market, and still-elevated inflation, we believe the Fed may raise interest rates once more in 2026 before pausing.
Asset Class Outlook
The combination of a historically favorable post-midterm period and resilient economic growth provides a supportive backdrop for stocks, although elevated market concentration may moderate returns. International and emerging market equities offer attractive relative valuations.
Current bond yields remain attractive relative to long-term averages, with many of our preferred bond funds offering high-single-digit yields. We also maintain high conviction in alternative investments, which may provide attractive risk-adjusted return potential and valuable diversification benefits.
For the full market update and investment outlook, please view our Market Perspectives deck.
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Mission Wealth is a Registered Investment Adviser. This commentary reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Mission Wealth employees providing such comments. It should not be regarded as a description of advisory services provided by Mission Wealth or performance returns of any Mission Wealth client. The views reflected in the commentary are subject to change at any time without notice. Nothing in this commentary constitutes investment advice, performance data, or any recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. Mission Wealth manages its clients’ accounts using a variety of investment techniques and strategies, which are not necessarily discussed in the commentary. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
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